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Calentamiento acelerado del Pacífico Oriental. La Niña desapareciendo.
8 marzo, 2012 Meteorología

La temperatura del mar en el Pacífico Ecuatorial Oriental, se incrementó de forma acelerada en las últimas semanas, observándose actualmente por encima de lo normal en dicha región. En el Pacífico central por el momento se mantienen condiciones ligeramente frías. Los modelos de predicción en la mayoría de casos estiman lluvias por encima de lo normal para el trimestre en la costa de Ecuador,
Colombia, Venezuela y América Central. A nivel mensual se debe considerar las estaciones propias de dicha región ya que se encuentra en etapa de transición estacional. Para los próximos meses se espera que se mantenga el calentamiento en la región ecuatorial del Pacífico oriental, pudiendo provocar alteraciones en la distribución de las lluvias en las regiones costeras del sur de Colombia, Ecuador y norte de Perú.

A nivel del Pacífico ecuatorial oriental la temperatura se incrementó en las últimas semanas de febrero, observándose actualmente anomalías positivas (temperatura por encima de lo normal para la época). A nivel oceánico las condiciones La Niña han cedido por completo, tanto a nivel de la superficie del mar como bajo ella. Se espera que el calentamiento en la zona ecuatorial se mantenga durante el próximo mes por lo menos. Por el momento se descarta el desarrollo de un evento El Niño. El escenario más probable es de temperatura cercana a lo normal en la mayor parte del Pacífico a excepción de la zona ecuatorial que se espera que se mantenga por encima de lo normal por unos meses.

PREDICCIONES DE MODELOS GLOBALES
De acuerdo a los modelos de predicción de lluvia LRF WMO (emsembles), International Research Institute IRI y el European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, no existen probabilidades altas de precipitaciones por encima de lo normal en la región. Los modelos pronostican lluvias ligeramente anómalas en la costa de Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela y América Central para el próximo trimestre. A nivel mensual, la situación puede ser diferente y presentarse meses con lluvias por encima de lo normal y otros con lluvia cercana a lo normal en el mismo trimestre, debido a la transición estacional.

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