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Cambio climático o variabilidad climática
12 enero, 2012 Meteorología

Es difícil entender la dinámica atmosférica, mas aun cuando los conocimientos de ella son pocos o nulos, es por ello que debemos comprender muy bien los conceptos sobre este tema que se ha vuelto un problema a nivel mundial y por ende afecta a Venezuela, que en algunos casos se convierte en epicentro de los estragos que causa un cambio en las condiciones meteorológicas, el cual puede durar desde semanas o hasta  meses inclusive. En esa búsqueda de dar respuesta a tanta incertidumbre, revisando bibliografía y apuntes es bueno comprender:

  1. Cambio climático: el clima por su propia naturaleza es cambiante, desde que se formo nuestro planeta  Tierra hasta la actualidad, los sistemas climáticos que surgen como consecuencia de la circulación general atmosférica, han experimentado alteraciones debido a causas naturales. Es así como la energía que alcanza la atmósfera terrestre sufre variaciones por factores astronómicos, también la energía que irradia la tierra, se altera por factores geográficos como las erupciones volcánicas; en consecuencia el balance energético del sistema tierra-atmósfera se altera. Según los expertos aseguran que un cambio de un dos por ciento en la intensidad de la radiación solar de forma positiva o de forma negativa, podría provocar una fusión parcial o total del hielo acumulado en los casquetes  glaciares o por el contrario un enfriamiento muy acusado en todo el planeta. Hoy en día la expresión de cambio climático es atribuida a la hipótesis de la alteración del clima terrestre por factores antropogénicos, donde la mano del hombre a jugado un papel importante, como causante del aumento de la temperatura media del planeta, observada a partir de los años sesenta, donde según dicho planteamiento, el desarrollo industrial que comenzó desde el siglo XVIII, introdujo un nuevo elemento en el sistema atmosférico, la emisión de gases por la quema de combustibles fósiles, en consecuencia se les ha llamado gases de efecto invernadero. A la hipótesis de variación del clima por efecto invernadero se le han sumado otros procesos atmosféricos o geográficos, tales como: la disminución del ozono  (agujero de ozono) en la estratosfera, episodios meteorológicos extremos, degradación del medio ambiente, considerados por los científicos y grupos ambientalistas como elementos fundamentas que inducen al cambio climático en el cual estamos inmersos. El debate es apasionado, y en la actualidad los estudios de cambio climático oponen a los que piensan que se debe a un factor humano y los que por el contrario piensan que se debe a un factor natural. Aun así hay numerosas incógnitas, como por ejemplo el papel que juegan los océanos como sumideros de gases de efecto invernadero, los problemas relativos a la distribución de una red de medición de las variables meteorológicas, o la validez de los modelos matemáticos para tratar a la atmósfera como un sistema abierto. Por otra parte no todos los sistemas climáticos responden de mismo modo a las alteraciones naturales o antropogénicas con respecto al balance de radicación, sin duda alguna se podría hablar entonces de cambios en el balance energético planetario, ya que la aparición de periodos fríos y calidos estudiados por la comunidad científica, están vinculados con las modificaciones experimentadas por los sistemas climáticos.
  2. Variabilidad climática: si bien conocemos el concepto de clima, la mejor percepción o la de mas difusión es la del austriaco Julios Von Hann (1839-1921) quien en su manual de climatología (1883), conceptuó el clima como el conjunto de fenómenos que caracterizan el estado medio de la atmósfera en un punto determinado de la superficie terrestre, para lo cual se requieren una serie observaciones suficientemente amplias  de sus elementos, que son objeto de análisis estadístico. Cuando se introduce los estudios estadísticos de las fluctuaciones de los sistemas climáticos a nivel mundial, podríamos comprender el origen de la variabilidad climática, tomando en cuenta los mecanismos que compensan los sistemas físicos o termodinámicos que puedan contener materia y energía. Los sistemas climáticos son por naturaleza son sistemas abiertos físicamente hablando, por ello se mantienen en equilibrio o invariable por un largo periodo de tiempo, ya que son capaces de trasmitir energía y materia en forma retornable de manera bidireccional. En función de esto podemos clasificar los sistemas abiertos como:
  • Disipativos: los que se consumen su propia energía o masa.
  • Cíclicos: Asumen un  comportamiento  oscilatorio  regular  impuesto.
  • Aleatorios: Evolucionan  o  cambian  de  manera  irregular,  son   fluctuaciones impredecibles en el tiempo.
  • En cascada: son una cadena de sistemas abiertos vinculados dinámicamente por una cascada de materia y energía. La salida de un sistema constituye la entrada de otro. Ej. Ciclo hidrológico-balance de radiación.

Dentro  de  un  sistema  climático  vale   la  pena  mencionar  que  existen   cinco  componentes básicos; la atmósfera, la capa oceánica superior (profundidad=100mts), el océano mas profundo, la criosfera y el suelo. El estudio del tiempo de relajación del equilibrio de cada uno de estos componentes, nos dan una idea clara de cada cuanto tiempo podemos esperar algún tipo de fluctuación, en una serie de elementos que determinan los sistemas climáticos de dichos componentes, la interacción de cada uno de ellos nos da una hipótesis de cómo podemos esperar las variaciones del clima, es así como por ejemplo en la atmósfera encontramos movimientos ondulatorios, que se propagan en función de su energía, encontrándonos con oscilaciones que van desde una pequeña escala hasta oscilaciones estaciónales (periodos anules-movimientos armónicos) e interanuales de periodos de varios años (Enso-QBO), que evidencian un patrón de comportamiento en los sistemas climáticos a nivel mundial. Realmente es muy compleja la situación cuando se habla de estos términos, principalmente porque hay que separar dos cosas importantes: cambio climático supone un cambio sistemático regular o irregular sin tomar en cuenta las tendencias y discontinuidades en una serie de datos, puede existir un cambio entre la población estadística, por otra parte la variabilidad climática estudia las fluctuaciones, oscilaciones, tendencias y discontinuidades que presentan una serie de datos que componen un sistema climático. Hay cambio climático si existe una diferencia estadística real o significativa entre sucesivos periodos de tiempo, hay variabilidad clima si hay cambios dentro del periodo promedio de tiempo. Precisar el impacto de estos términos en Venezuela supone un estudio estadístico y analítico del comportamiento de los datos, en una serie temporal donde se define los elementos climáticos, determinar cuanto es la oscilación de la variación del clima en nuestro país nos ayudaría a entender el verdadero impacto del cambio climático a nivel mundial.

Cnel. Julio Cesar Cabanerit Caraballo

Meteorólogo-Servicio de Meteorología de la Aviación

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  130. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

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  157. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

  158. a po? co ci polacy? pamiętaj największe gówno jakie może spotkać polaka za granicą, to drugi polak. Oszukają cie, okradną albo podpierdolą w robocie

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