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CIIFEN: Pronóstico de las lluvias para Centroamérica y Suramérica en relación a El Niño/Niña
5 mayo, 2012 Meteorología

Calentamiento persiste en el Pacífico ecuatorial oriental. Una información del Centro Internacional para la Investigación del fenómeno de El Niño (CIIFEN)  destinada a proveer a los usuarios: tomadores de decisiones, planificadores, agricultores, pescadores, otros actores del desarrollo, medios de comunicación, científicos y la población en general de una síntesis útil y oportuna de diversas fuentes relevantes de información, para analizar los efectos climáticos relacionados con El Niño/La Niña, vistos desde una perspectiva regional enfocada en el Pacífico Oriental. La temperatura de la superficie del mar del Pacífico Ecuatorial Oriental, persiste por encima de lo normal desde la última semana de febrero. Bajo la superficie se observa una temperatura ligeramente sobre lo normal a lo largo del Pacífico. En el Pacífico central en superficie, las condiciones son cercanas a lo normal con pocos remanentes del evento La Niña. El escenario más probable por ahora para el trimestre es de condiciones cercanas a lo normal. Los modelos de predicción en la mayoría de casos estiman lluvias por encima de lo normal para el trimestre en la zona Caribe de Colombia y Costa norte de Ecuador, el resto de la región, con mayor probabilidad de lluvia cercana a lo normal excepto la región Andina de Colombia, Centro América y sur de Chile que tiene mayor probabilidad de lluvia por debajo de lo normal.

Condiciones Observadas al 3 de Mayo del 2012
La temperatura del mar en la superficie del Pacífico ecuatorial oriental persiste por encima de lo normal desde las últimas semanas de febrero. En el Pacífico Central, las condiciones de temperatura se observan cercanas a lo normal con muy pocas señales del evento La Niña. Bajo la superficie la temperatura del mar se registra ligeramente sobre lo normal a lo largo del Pacífico. Se espera que zona ecuatorial oriental mantenga una temperatura por encima de lo normal durante los próximos meses. El escenario más probable es de temperatura cercana a lo normal en la mayor parte del Pacífico a excepción de la zona ecuatorial oriental es posible que se mantenga por encima de lo normal.

PREDICCIONES DE MODELOS GLOBALES
De acuerdo a los modelos de predicción de lluvia CPTEC (Brasil), International Research Institute IRI y el European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, existen probabilidades de lluvia por encima de lo normal en la costa norte de Ecuador y región Caribe de Colombia para el trimestre. Probabilidad de lluvia por debajo de lo normal en la región Andina de Colombia, Centro América y sur de Chile. Se debe tomar en cuenta que los pronósticos se refieren al acumulado de lluvias en el trimestre, no a lo que pueda ocurrir en un mes en particular. 

Pronóstico Estacional Regional
El análisis estadístico de 430 estaciones de los Servicios Meteorológicos de Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú, Uruguay y Venezuela, estima que durante el período Abril-Junio 2012 existen mayores probabilidades de lluvia por encima de lo normal en la mayor parte de Venezuela, Colombia, Costa central y Sierra central y sur de Ecuador, Sierra norte y central de Perú, noroeste de Argentina y norte de Uruguay. Mayores probabilidades de lluvia bajo lo normal al norte de Ecuador, mayor parte de Bolivia y Provincia de Buenos Aires y noroeste de Argentina. El Foro de Perspectivas Climáticas para América Central, estima mayores probabilidades de lluvia cercana a lo normal para el período de MJJ 2012, a excepción de la costa oeste de Nicaragua y Costa Rica, que presenta mayores probabilidades de lluvia por debajo de lo normal.

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